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| Supporters of Russian
communist party hold a rally to protest against violations at the
parliamentary elections in Russia's Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk,
December 9, 2011.
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Is the Arab Spring moving North to become the Russian Winter? With
democracy demonstrations to take place across Russia on Saturday, the
world’s largest nation may be at a crossroads.
From his prison
cell near the Arctic Circle, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the jailed Russian
tycoon, captured the core of Russia’s political impasse when he
predicted a few weeks ago that the key question would not be who will
win Russia’s elections, but how much will the fraud undermine the
legitimacy of Vladimir Putin’s government?
On Saturday, barely one week after Russia’s parliamentary elections, we may see the answer.
Readying for major protestA
Moscow protest demonstration permitted for 300 people has drawn
attendance pledges from 50,000 people. Moscow is bracing for the largest
democracy demonstration of the Putin decade.
Beyond the capital,
protests are to take place in 88 Russian and 43 foreign cities. From
Kaliningrad on the Baltic to Vladivostok on the Pacific, Russians seem
to be shaking off an apathy that Putin's opponents say has allowed him
to rule Russia largely unchallenged since 2000.
Where is all this headed?
Boris
Makarenko, chairman of the Center for Political Technologies, an
independent think tank in Moscow, does not believe the Russian street
will dethrone the Czar.
“I don’t think it is going towards an Orange Revolution like in Ukraine, Georgia or Yugoslavia,” said Makarenko.
Putin eroding popularityBut Russia has changed. The mystique of Putin’s invincibility has shown some cracks.
The
first shock came when a crowd at a martial arts fight booed Putin, a
judo expert. The Kremlin later said the crowd was really booing a losing
contestant, an American. Then the Kremlin said the beer drinkers in the
crowd were booing because presidential security did not let them use
the bathrooms.
Kremlin watchers have noted, though, that Putin
has not appeared in public since, skipping two anti-drug rallies where
he had been billed as a speaker.
In last Sunday’s elections, the
vote for the ruling United Russia Party officially dropped to half of
the ballots cast. But opposition politicians and many election observers
say that, without fraud, only one quarter of the voters in Moscow and
St. Petersburg cast ballots for the ruling party. Historically, it is
hard to rule Russia without these two cities.
Questions surround electionsKeeping
passions on a boil, Russia’s Internet is flooded with videos, photos
and reports alleging election fraud. Mikhail Prokhorov, Russia’s second
richest man, wrote on his blog: “The majority of our people think the
elections were unfair.”
On Tuesday night, while police were
arresting more than 500 anti-Putin protesters in central Moscow, Putin
was a few blocks away, studying paintings at a show of Caravaggio, the
17th century Italian painter.
In a short three months, Putin faces voters as a candidate for president and has to make choices about his strategy.
He
can crack down, following the path of neighboring Belarus. He can open
up, offering reforms. Or he can spread government money around, drawing
on Russia’s massive foreign currency reserves - about half a trillion
dollars.
Putin's path aheadVladimir
Tikhomirov, an analyst with Otkritie investment house, believes Putin
will do a little bit of everything, aiming to keep power.
“I
wouldn’t rule out the traditional Russian way of trying to muddle
through, using the combinations of reforms and police state,” said
Tikhomirov.
The Kremlin has full control of the police and the
television stations. Ten days from now, Russians will shift focus to the
Christmas-New Year’s season, a holiday period that stretches through to
mid-January.
One month ago, Anatol Lieven, a professor at the
War Studies Department in King’s College London, joined a group dinner
with Prime Minister Putin. He calls Putin a master politician and
predicts he will regain his footing.
“It’s just the beginning of
course. I would not expect this to prevent Putin’s re-election, let
alone to produce a revolution that would bring down the regime,’’ said
Lieven.
On Tuesday, Putin spoke to ruling party leaders who are
irritated that the opposition calls their party “the party of thieves
and swindlers.” Putin recalled that in the Soviet days, people called
the authorities “thieves and bribe takers.”
With a six-year presidential term at stake in March, analyst Makarenko said Putin has to offer Russians a vision for the future.
“The
catch is that the Russian people lost its optimism during the crisis -
not the savings, not the social status. People want their optimism back -
and the ruling party did not care to help them in that. Mr. Putin has
his chance. He has his agenda to announce,” said Makarenko.
But
on Thursday, Putin took a page out of an old Soviet playbook, charging
that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sent out a “signal” that
activated Russia’s street protests.
This week, police in Moscow
and St. Petersburg arrested 1,600 protesters. Referring to protests that
have been largely invisible to TV watchers here, Putin reminded
Russians that they want stability,
Evoking images of chaos, he
reminded Russians of the street revolutions that took place in two
former Soviet republics, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan.
But Professor Lieven said that Russians do not want to sacrifice all democratic freedoms in the name of stability.
“Even
conservative Russians, or pro-Putin Russians, really don’t want to see
themselves as a version of Uzbekistan. The appearance of some degree of
democracy is really rather psychologically important to them,’’ said
Lieven.
Saturday’s demonstrations may serve as sign pointers - indicating which way Russia will go in the New Year.